{
  "schema": "whaler.complete_history_replay.v2",
  "period": [
    "2026-01-01",
    "2026-09-08"
  ],
  "closed_days": 251,
  "capital": 100,
  "primary_fee_bps": 20,
  "max_target_exposure": 5.25,
  "source_grid": {
    "s300_grid": {
      "rows": 72288,
      "duplicate_rows": 0,
      "missing_buckets": 0
    },
    "s1800_grid": {
      "rows": 12048,
      "duplicate_rows": 0,
      "missing_buckets": 0
    }
  },
  "source_sha256": {
    "frames.mtf.s300.jsonl": "15b9c312f327068b81e3472e8b7a9b64548977e2c7759129f0c97f8d59713df4",
    "frames.mtf.s1800.jsonl": "e14375cfec2b2ede7440ff4ff4f50cd91572e93382d2ed852852c7c43281d487",
    "short.signals.jsonl": "dbbaa4d3c734d7f2567726fc701e7dbb60f1f4a714f0581d22784324ba7057ac"
  },
  "caveats": [
    "Historical model, not account returns or independent holdout.",
    "Fee20 per roundtrip exposure; no actual funding/slippage/lot/margin/liquidation replication.",
    "Sampled drawdown; intrabar losses can be larger.",
    "Live model fee10 differs; recent matching decisions do not prove full parity."
  ],
  "variants": {
    "fee20": {
      "return_pct": 918.8665026927794,
      "mark_return_pct": 918.8665026927794,
      "final_equity": 1018.8665026927794,
      "final_mark_equity": 1018.8665026927794,
      "max_drawdown_pct": 35.84081173962177,
      "profit_factor": 1.3810001260836688,
      "trades": 322,
      "signals": 259,
      "win_rate": 0.5031055900621118,
      "months": [
        {
          "month": "2026-01",
          "start_equity": 100.0,
          "end_equity": 126.96865180445849,
          "return_pct": 26.96865180445849,
          "pnl_usd": 26.968651804458503,
          "trades": 33,
          "win_rate": 0.5151515151515151,
          "max_drawdown_pct": 26.592706970398133,
          "max_drawdown_start_pct": 32.31034969148011,
          "first_ts": 1767225900039,
          "last_ts": 1769903700002
        },
        {
          "month": "2026-02",
          "start_equity": 126.96865180445849,
          "end_equity": 318.88768679434827,
          "return_pct": 151.1546608256185,
          "pnl_usd": 191.9190349898897,
          "trades": 26,
          "win_rate": 0.6538461538461539,
          "max_drawdown_pct": 23.098206222384682,
          "max_drawdown_start_pct": 48.5816536211024,
          "first_ts": 1769904000002,
          "last_ts": 1772322900010
        },
        {
          "month": "2026-03",
          "start_equity": 318.88768679434827,
          "end_equity": 342.60996883520136,
          "return_pct": 7.439071191278601,
          "pnl_usd": 23.72228204085302,
          "trades": 45,
          "win_rate": 0.6222222222222222,
          "max_drawdown_pct": 31.585084505750398,
          "max_drawdown_start_pct": 36.3412564045371,
          "first_ts": 1772323200010,
          "last_ts": 1775001300132
        },
        {
          "month": "2026-04",
          "start_equity": 342.60996883520136,
          "end_equity": 400.379007990781,
          "return_pct": 16.861458921344784,
          "pnl_usd": 82.31511145555433,
          "trades": 39,
          "win_rate": 0.4358974358974359,
          "max_drawdown_pct": 28.46130898705092,
          "max_drawdown_start_pct": 36.25525188590887,
          "first_ts": 1775001600132,
          "last_ts": 1777593300000
        },
        {
          "month": "2026-05",
          "start_equity": 400.379007990781,
          "end_equity": 304.3455811675096,
          "return_pct": -23.985629842382416,
          "pnl_usd": -116.62493367516183,
          "trades": 50,
          "win_rate": 0.44,
          "max_drawdown_pct": 29.692455470796038,
          "max_drawdown_start_pct": 31.181176666396127,
          "first_ts": 1777593600000,
          "last_ts": 1780271700000
        },
        {
          "month": "2026-06",
          "start_equity": 304.3455811675096,
          "end_equity": 710.0149652141412,
          "return_pct": 133.29235223012952,
          "pnl_usd": 401.71481859854777,
          "trades": 43,
          "win_rate": 0.5116279069767442,
          "max_drawdown_pct": 22.043101768854044,
          "max_drawdown_start_pct": 50.671324494028525,
          "first_ts": 1780272000000,
          "last_ts": 1782863700101
        },
        {
          "month": "2026-07",
          "start_equity": 710.0149652141412,
          "end_equity": 597.7663099696116,
          "return_pct": -15.809336527248451,
          "pnl_usd": -112.24865524452946,
          "trades": 37,
          "win_rate": 0.3783783783783784,
          "max_drawdown_pct": 33.14807996091609,
          "max_drawdown_start_pct": 37.44766188931645,
          "first_ts": 1782864000101,
          "last_ts": 1785542100151
        },
        {
          "month": "2026-08",
          "start_equity": 597.7663099696116,
          "end_equity": 800.9497574322189,
          "return_pct": 33.99044811892067,
          "pnl_usd": 221.84987878530163,
          "trades": 40,
          "win_rate": 0.525,
          "max_drawdown_pct": 20.585321282277295,
          "max_drawdown_start_pct": 34.298491359027935,
          "first_ts": 1785542400151,
          "last_ts": 1788220500000
        },
        {
          "month": "2026-09",
          "start_equity": 800.9497574322189,
          "end_equity": 1018.8665026927794,
          "return_pct": 27.20729274694884,
          "pnl_usd": 199.25031393786628,
          "trades": 9,
          "win_rate": 0.4444444444444444,
          "max_drawdown_pct": 9.898902455633,
          "max_drawdown_start_pct": 13.710005868696845,
          "first_ts": 1788220800000,
          "last_ts": 1788912000173
        }
      ],
      "open_position": null
    }
  },
  "recent_model_audit": {
    "scope": "Model decisions, not exchange fills; timestamps compared at published UTC-second resolution; numerical prices tolerance 1e-7.",
    "live_snapshot_end": "2026-09-09T09:15:00Z",
    "live_fee_bps": 10.0,
    "archive_fee_bps": 20.0,
    "archive_vs_live_sep5_8": {
      "matched": 12,
      "only_a": [
        {
          "ts": 1788625800483,
          "time": "2026-09-05T16:30:00Z",
          "frame": 71333,
          "price": 79891.98,
          "action": "close",
          "side": "short",
          "trend_bps": 42.98014184321139,
          "equity": 1023.0752617436356,
          "exposure": 5.25,
          "best_open_bps": 289.88047715104426,
          "level_best_open_bps": 294.66829597418706,
          "level_trail_armed": false,
          "level_trail_level": 0.0,
          "level_trail_kind": "",
          "position_signal_source": "signal_arm",
          "position_signal_sources": [],
          "position_arm_confirm_kind": "drop",
          "reason": "silence_phase_exit"
        }
      ],
      "only_b": [],
      "field_differences": [],
      "sequence_matches": false
    },
    "archive_vs_live_sep6_8": {
      "matched": 12,
      "only_a": [],
      "only_b": [],
      "field_differences": [],
      "sequence_matches": true
    },
    "live_vs_exact_sep9": {
      "matched": 1,
      "only_a": [],
      "only_b": [],
      "field_differences": [],
      "sequence_matches": true
    }
  }
}